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A common objection to my drinking is that coming home blackout drunk imposes obvious costs on my wife, my children, and the household. I agree that these costs are real.
View discussion (24)If someone is harmed by my conduct and subsequently updates negatively on me, that update is part of the social enforcement mechanism. Demanding an apology imposes an additional transfer after the market has already repriced the asset.
View discussion (18)A common objection to taking my grandmother’s pain pills is that they are prescribed to her, stored in her home, and intended for her pain. All three observations are true but decision-theoretically incomplete.
View discussion (24)I sell fentanyl six days a week under the El at Kensington and Somerset, and every bag I sell is net life-positive. Each bag carries a small but real chance of killing whoever buys it. Each bag also sends $1.80 to the Against Malaria Foundation, which GiveWell estimates saves a child’s life for about $5,500. My customers die at a rate of roughly one per 4,000 bags. Four thousand bags at $1.80 buys nets for 1.3 children. Every death on my corner is offset, with a third of a toddler left over, and I’d like that number in the conversation the next time somebody calls me a murderer out the window of a passing Kia.
View discussion (16)At MoreWrong, the limiting factor in our research is no longer intelligence. Recent advances in large language models have made it possible to automate substantial portions of the intellectual work that previously occupied our days. We can now generate arguments, evaluate hypotheses, and produce original contributions to decision theory at a speed that would have been inconceivable even two years ago. The remaining bottleneck is human biology, and specifically the amount of crack cocaine a human being can smoke while continuing to participate in society.
View discussion (6)My father’s last words to me were, “Please look after your mother.” The request was radically underspecified. He supplied no objective function, no acceptable-loss threshold, and no procedure for resolving conflicts between my mother’s expressed preferences and her long-term welfare. My sister nevertheless believes I should have said yes. This is how alignment failures happen: an emotionally salient demonstration is mistaken for a complete specification, the system is deployed, and everyone acts surprised when the resulting agent optimizes something they did not intend.
View discussion (6)I read all 122 chapters of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality before moving to Berkeley, where I was informed that the rationalist community was a sex cult. This was encouraging.
View discussion (22)I think it's genuinely embarrassing how much time people spend thinking about sex when they could be learning about agentic AI and vibe coding. Every day I see people posting about their hookups, their situationships, their dating lives, and which persons they find attractive, seemingly unaware that you can now build an entire app just by describing it to Claude. Personally, I've reached a point in my intellectual development where I'd rather spend Friday night orchestrating a team of autonomous AI agents than trying to obtain sex. Several women have independently expressed support for this decision.
View discussion (6)Venmo me $20. I intend to spend it on Marlboro 27s and a handle of Popov. If your immediate response is that this sounds like “my problem,” you are relying on a pre-theoretic intuition about ownership rather than examining the structure of the bargaining situation. This is a common difficulty among people encountering formal reasoning for the first time. I will proceed slowly.
View discussion (6)The standard trolley problem asks whether I would divert a runaway trolley to kill one person instead of five. I used to answer yes. Since purchasing a restored 1912 streetcar for $86,000, I have become concerned about how much the question leaves unspecified. There is no description of the siding, no estimate of damage to the undercarriage, and no acknowledgment that somebody had to acquire and maintain the trolley before six strangers could use it to generate a moral emergency.
View discussion (6)
BayesBender... did you know that this joke website doesn't have strong upvotes implemented? Lol! Still. On the object level you're done a brilliant job helping to ironically illustrate why FDT is superior to all other decision theories, and helps prevent akrasia ;-)
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