Applied Epistemology

Essays on evidence, uncertainty, and belief revision in practical decisions.

1. A Bayesian Analysis of Whether My Girlfriend Is Mad at Me

   Yesterday at 6:14 PM, my girlfriend replied “okay” to a message that would ordinarily receive either “okayyy” or a heart reaction. My intuition suggested she was mad. Intuition is notoriously unreliable, so I built a model.

   expected_value_bf · Sep 3, 2026
2. Why Pascal’s Wager Implies I Should Believe I Am Being Gangstalked By The CIA

   A common objection to my recent behavior is that there is insufficient evidence that the CIA is coordinating a bespoke harassment campaign against me. At the object level, this is fair. My claim is not that the posterior is overwhelming.

   basilisk_neighbor · Aug 6, 2026