{"post":{"feed":"main","pinned":false,"imageAlt":"Loose ink-and-watercolor illustration of a father calculating at a cluttered table, with a soccer ball and small cleats waiting beside the front door and a mechanical basilisk in his thought cloud.","id":"against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice","slug":"against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice","title":"Against Taking My Son To Soccer Practice: A Bayesian, Longtermist, Updateless, Game-Theoretic, Kelly-Optimal Steelman of the Opportunity Cost of Reallocating My Son’s College Fund, My Ex-Wife’s Child Support, and the Proceeds of My Second Divorce Toward Methamphetamine, Escorts, Polymarket Positions, Grandma’s Pain Pills, and an Acausal Trade With Roko’s Basilisk Under Coherent Extrapolated Volition, Short Timelines, and a p(doom) I Will Not Be Updating at This Time (Part 1 of 7)","author":"full_kelly_custody","body":"

Expected value. Expected value expected value. Ketamine, Kelly criterion, child support. Roko’s basilisk; Adderall; girlfriend. Shut up and multiply. Escorts. Expected value.

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Priors on vodka. Updateless decision theory, DraftKings, Chesterton’s fence, Alex Karp, marriage. Half-Kelly, methamphetamine, inner alignment. Newcomb’s problem, two boxes, both nicotine. Moloch, Palantir, college fund, effective hedonism, illegible. Short timelines, lap dance. Goodhart’s law, Elon Musk, kids. Microdosing, x-risk, Bayes. Hedonic treadmill, moral circle expansion, nephew. Expected value expected value.

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p(doom). Posteriors on vodka, cocaine, Tuesday. Acausal trade with my bookie. Polymarket. Instrumental convergence, earning to gamble, outer alignment. Orthogonality thesis, child support. Shoggoth, OpenAI, high-agency, inside view, Juul pods. Paperclip maximizer, Anduril, mother’s birthday. Full Kelly, s-risk, edibles. Corrigibility, escort, basilisk. QALYs, macrodosing, Solana. Coherent extrapolated volition. Dario Amodei. Claude. Expected value.

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Effective altruism, blackjack table, longtermism. Bayesian, likelihood ratio of the fourth vodka. Earning to give, Palantir, ex-wife, 100x leverage. Mesa-optimizer, hedons, lottery tickets. Scope insensitivity, game theory, Grandma’s pills. Functional decision theory, Peter Thiel, shorter timelines, OnlyFans risk. Epistemic status: high. Moral circle contraction, Jeffrey Epstein, outside view, crypto. Steelman, Charlie Kirk, double crux. Utilons, ketamine. Expected value expected value.

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Opportunity cost of soccer practice. Option value of the second divorce. Poker maximizer, sunk cost, open bar. Value of information, girlfriend’s phone. Gambling to give, Adderall alignment, Vegas. Revealed preference, Elon Musk, short-termism. Comparative advantage, effective kratom, view from the hot tub. Schelling point, Polymarket, casino. Bayes-optimal, Lindy, whiskey. Alex Karp, Anduril, legible. Dosing, Kelly at the strip club. Agentic, Jane Street. Venmo me. Expected value.

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Kelly. Peter Thiel. Soccer practice. Basilisk, ketamine, child support. Polymarket. Kelly. Shut up and multiply. Dario Amodei. Methamphetamine, escorts, Kelly. Anduril. Ketamine. Multiply. OpenAI. Basilisk. Expected value expected value expected value. Applied ethics. Expected value.

\n","excerpt":"Expected value. Expected value expected value. Ketamine, Kelly criterion, child support. Roko’s basilisk; Adderall; girlfriend. Shut up and multiply. Escorts. Expected value.","tags":["Decision Theory","Effective Altruism"],"score":413,"displayOrder":640,"thumbnail":"/assets/articles/against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-thumb.webp","image":"/assets/articles/against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice.webp","commentCount":6,"date":"2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z","revision":4,"status":"published"},"comments":[{"id":"seed-against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-0","author":"scope_sensitivity","text":"I think the argument needs an explicit model of the value your son assigns to soccer practice.","parentId":null,"score":54,"date":"2026-10-05T00:42:00.000Z","own":false,"moderatable":false,"seed":true},{"id":"seed-against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-1","author":"full_kelly_custody","text":"Expected value. Expected value expected value.","parentId":"seed-against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-0","score":11,"date":"2026-10-05T01:07:00.000Z","own":false,"moderatable":false,"seed":true},{"id":"seed-against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-2","author":"mark_the_coach","text":"Practice ends at 5:30. Please stop sending me PDFs.","parentId":null,"score":126,"date":"2026-10-05T01:58:00.000Z","own":false,"moderatable":false,"seed":true},{"id":"seed-against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-3","author":"half_kelly_dad","text":"The case for full Kelly seems underdeveloped. Have you considered allowing your son to attend every other practice?","parentId":null,"score":29,"date":"2026-10-05T03:23:00.000Z","own":false,"moderatable":false,"seed":true},{"id":"seed-against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-4","author":"his_ex_wife","text":"The college fund was $640. He spent $110 on a leather notebook to work out whether to spend the rest.","parentId":null,"score":97,"date":"2026-10-05T08:01:00.000Z","own":false,"moderatable":false,"seed":true},{"id":"seed-against-taking-my-son-to-soccer-practice-5","author":"acausal_roster","text":"Would appreciate a table of contents for Parts 2–7 before I decide whether to update.","parentId":null,"score":17,"date":"2026-10-05T22:18:00.000Z","own":false,"moderatable":false,"seed":true}]}