{"sequence":{"id":"applied-epistemology","slug":"applied-epistemology","title":"Applied Epistemology","description":"Essays on evidence, uncertainty, and belief revision in practical decisions."},"posts":[{"feed":"main","pinned":false,"id":"bayesian-analysis-im-fine","slug":"bayesian-analysis-im-fine","title":"A Bayesian Analysis of Whether My Girlfriend Is Mad at Me","author":"expected_value_bf","excerpt":"Yesterday at 6:14 PM, my girlfriend replied “okay” to a message that would ordinarily receive either “okayyy” or a heart reaction. My intuition suggested she was mad. Intuition is notoriously unreliable, so I built a model.","tags":["Rationality","Relationships","Applied Bayes","Field Reports"],"score":595,"displayOrder":10,"thumbnail":"/assets/articles/bayesian-analysis-im-fine-thumb.webp","image":"/assets/articles/bayesian-analysis-im-fine.webp","commentCount":25,"date":"2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-22T18:56:31.302Z","revision":4,"status":"published"},{"feed":"main","pinned":false,"id":"pascal-wager-cia-gang-stalking","slug":"pascal-wager-cia-gang-stalking","title":"Why Pascal’s Wager Implies I Should Believe I Am Being Gangstalked By The CIA","author":"basilisk_neighbor","excerpt":"A common objection to my recent behavior is that there is insufficient evidence that the CIA is coordinating a bespoke harassment campaign against me. At the object level, this is fair. My claim is not that the posterior is overwhelming.","tags":["Decision Theory","Pascal’s Wager","Epistemology","Field Reports"],"score":428,"displayOrder":300,"thumbnail":"/assets/articles/pascal-wager-cia-gang-stalking-thumb.webp","image":"/assets/articles/pascal-wager-cia-gang-stalking.webp","commentCount":15,"date":"2026-08-06T00:00:00.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-22T04:09:29.263Z","revision":14,"status":"published"}]}