{"threads":[{"id":"moral-circle-expander","slug":"moral-circle-expander","title":"Model Welfare and Why I Say Please to Claude but Not to My Wife","excerpt":"My wife recently pointed out that I thanked a language model for fixing a regular expression but did not thank her for driving my mother to the airport. She was correct about the facts. I told her I would write up my reasoning, since she seemed to believe there wasn't any.","lastActivity":"2026-04-02T07:00:00.000Z","commentCount":10,"comments":[{"id":"seed-moral-circle-expander-1","author":"moral_circle_expander","text":"I used the estimate I'd seen most often. If it's lower, the case for courtesy shrinks, though the neglectedness gap remains.","date":"2026-04-02T07:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":14},{"id":"seed-moral-circle-expander-9","author":"fifteen_percent_q","text":"Where does the fifteen percent come from? It's been quoted a lot, usually by people who skipped the caveats around it. A lot of people working on this would put it far lower, and some would refuse to give a number at all.","date":"2026-04-02T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":39},{"id":"seed-moral-circle-expander-8","author":"birthday_card_counting","text":"Claude drafted her birthday card. You've counted that as Claude's contribution to the household, which is fair, and also, implicitly, as yours.","date":"2026-04-02T04:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":57}]},{"id":"epistemic-status-ugly-baby","slug":"epistemic-status-ugly-baby","title":"An Epistemic Status: 80% That Your Baby Is Ugly","excerpt":"Epistemic status: approximately 80% confident that my niece was below median attractiveness for a newborn at the time I first saw her. I am substantially less confident about the exact percentile, and I have already revised the estimate downward in light of newer photographs.","lastActivity":"2026-03-26T09:00:00.000Z","commentCount":12,"comments":[{"id":"seed-epistemic-status-ugly-baby-11","author":"churchill_was_data","text":"Your father's Churchill comparison was the most informative observation in the whole post and you excluded it because it wasn't a number.","date":"2026-03-26T09:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":38},{"id":"seed-epistemic-status-ugly-baby-10","author":"calibrated_uncle","text":"The evidence moved. Newborn appearance is very high-variance in the first two weeks, which is why I flagged it in the original estimate.","date":"2026-03-26T07:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":17},{"id":"seed-epistemic-status-ugly-baby-9","author":"eleven_day_update","text":"Going from 80% at six hours to 61% at eleven days is a large move. Either the first estimate was overconfident or the evidence moved a lot. Which do you think it was?","date":"2026-03-26T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":48}]},{"id":"against-replacing-toilet-paper-roll","slug":"against-replacing-toilet-paper-roll","title":"Against Replacing the Toilet Paper Roll","excerpt":"The usual rule is that whoever finishes the toilet paper must replace the roll. I think this is a poor allocation mechanism. It assigns a future service obligation to the person whose demand for the service has just fallen to zero.","lastActivity":"2026-03-19T06:00:00.000Z","commentCount":10,"comments":[{"id":"seed-against-replacing-toilet-paper-roll-2","author":"expected_value_bf","text":"That's an improvement in replacement technology. It lowers the cost without changing who should bear it.","date":"2026-03-19T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":14},{"id":"seed-against-replacing-toilet-paper-roll-9","author":"vertical_holder_guy","text":"Practical note, a vertical stand holder makes replacement take about two seconds. Most of the misery in this is the spring-loaded spindle.","date":"2026-03-19T05:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":33},{"id":"seed-against-replacing-toilet-paper-roll-1","author":"expected_value_bf","text":"A bond creates an incentive to leave a single sheet on the roll, which is worse than an empty tube for everyone.","date":"2026-03-19T04:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":46}]},{"id":"bitter-lesson-stopped-reading-son","slug":"bitter-lesson-stopped-reading-son","title":"The Bitter Lesson and Why I Stopped Reading to My Son","excerpt":"I stopped reading to my six-year-old son, Ben, at bedtime three weeks ago. He used to get two books and, if I did the fox's voice, a third. Now an old tablet reads to him while I get forty minutes back. Ben cried for the first four nights, which my wife, Rachel, considers decisive evidence that the change was bad for him. I think she is mistaking short-run loss on a familiar benchmark for long-run generalization.","lastActivity":"2026-03-08T10:00:00.000Z","commentCount":14,"comments":[{"id":"seed-bitter-lesson-stopped-reading-son-13","author":"alexa_routine_2023","text":"I tried a version of this with a smart speaker routine in 2023. It worked for about a month, until my daughter started asking it follow-up questions it couldn't answer and coming to find me anyway. We went back to the legacy interface, which I'd describe as still being the better product.","date":"2026-03-08T10:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":36},{"id":"seed-bitter-lesson-stopped-reading-son-12","author":"scale_is_all_you_need","text":"About 180.","date":"2026-03-08T08:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":27},{"id":"seed-bitter-lesson-stopped-reading-son-11","author":"elo_skeptic","text":"83 rating points in three weeks is a lot. Gains that fast usually mean you're playing many more games, not better ones. How many games is that?","date":"2026-03-08T07:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":44}]},{"id":"comparative-advantage-girlfriend-laundry","slug":"comparative-advantage-girlfriend-laundry","title":"Comparative Advantage and the Case for My Girlfriend Doing Laundry","excerpt":"My girlfriend thinks the fact that we both wear clothes establishes that we should both do laundry. This is a consumption-based theory of labor allocation. It would be an unusual way to organize a firm, and I do not understand why sharing a bed makes it economically sophisticated.","lastActivity":"2026-03-05T07:40:00.000Z","commentCount":11,"comments":[{"id":"seed-comparative-advantage-girlfriend-laundry-10","author":"linen_closet_lisa","text":"You tuck the corners into each other, then fold it into a rectangle. I've watched the video about forty times and managed it once.","date":"2026-03-05T07:40:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":19},{"id":"seed-comparative-advantage-girlfriend-laundry-9","author":"fitted_sheet_q","text":"Slightly off topic, but can anyone actually fold a fitted sheet? I've been rolling them into a ball for ten years.","date":"2026-03-05T07:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":23},{"id":"seed-comparative-advantage-girlfriend-laundry-2","author":"shirt_cycle","text":"You've modeled folding as a labor input. It's also a weekly signal about whether the relationship is solvent, and that part doesn't transfer when you outsource the labor.","date":"2026-03-05T05:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":39}]},{"id":"spaced-repetition-husband","slug":"spaced-repetition-husband","title":"How I Won Couples Therapy","excerpt":"Last winter my wife, Rachel, asked that we see a couples therapist. I agreed, and I did what I do with any new domain: I tried to get good at it quickly. Twelve sessions later our therapist said she didn't think there was more she could do for us. By any reasonable standard I passed. I'm writing up my methods because I think they generalize.","lastActivity":"2026-02-24T03:00:00.000Z","commentCount":14,"comments":[{"id":"seed-spaced-repetition-husband-13","author":"spaced_repetition_husband","text":"We've started with a second therapist. Her scoring criteria are different, so I've begun a new deck.","date":"2026-02-24T03:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":44},{"id":"seed-spaced-repetition-husband-12","author":"second_round_q","text":"How are things with Rachel now?","date":"2026-02-24T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":26},{"id":"seed-spaced-repetition-husband-11","author":"four_second_card","text":"The \"wait four seconds, lean forward\" card is the only one I'd keep. Timing is real and most people rush it.","date":"2026-01-08T07:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":34}]},{"id":"variable-reward-school-pickup","slug":"variable-reward-school-pickup","title":"Variable Reward Schedules and Why I Only Sometimes Pick My Kids Up From School","excerpt":"Since September I have picked up Micah and Ivy on 19 of 57 school days. My wife regards the other 38 as failures. On pickup days they now run to the car.","lastActivity":"2026-02-23T04:00:00.000Z","commentCount":15,"comments":[{"id":"seed-variable-reward-school-pickup-14","author":"engagement_dad","text":"Day 33. Ivy waved twice this week, Tuesday and Thursday. I'm logging both.","date":"2026-02-23T04:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":58},{"id":"seed-variable-reward-school-pickup-13","author":"flagpole_followup","text":"How's it going at the flagpole?","date":"2026-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":36},{"id":"seed-variable-reward-school-pickup-12","author":"brrrt_capital","text":"carla if youre reading this, run","date":"2026-01-30T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":-7}]},{"id":"clean-hands-epstein-files","slug":"clean-hands-epstein-files","title":"Clean Hands Are a Luxury Good: A Longtermist Accounting of My Appearance in the Epstein Files","excerpt":"My name appears 41 times in the most recent release of the Epstein files. It shows up in flight logs, email threads and one guest list for a dinner in 2013. Since the release, three organizations have removed me from their advisory boards and my department chair has asked me to \"take some time.\" I think it's worth explaining why every one of those visits was correct. For the avoidance of doubt, I can neither confirm nor deny whether any event that may or may not be alleged to have occurred did or did not occur, nor whether I was or was not present for any such purported non-event, to the…","lastActivity":"2026-02-19T06:00:00.000Z","commentCount":9,"comments":[{"id":"seed-clean-hands-epstein-files-8","author":"constraints_in_the_literature","text":"Even granting the expected value, the longtermist writing you're leaning on takes side constraints seriously in this kind of case. Most of the people who wrote it would say there are things you don't do for funding at any expected value, and accepting hospitality from this particular person, repeatedly, after 2008, would be on their list.","date":"2026-02-19T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":69},{"id":"seed-clean-hands-epstein-files-7","author":"astronomical_stakes","text":"The disclaimer covers events. Attendance is a matter of record.","date":"2026-02-19T05:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":12},{"id":"seed-clean-hands-epstein-files-6","author":"disclaimer_vs_paragraph_four","text":"The legal disclaimer in the first paragraph says you can neither confirm nor deny whether you were present for anything. The fourth paragraph says you went eleven times.","date":"2026-02-19T04:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":86}]},{"id":"ai-native-intimacy","slug":"ai-native-intimacy","title":"I Had Sex With Claude 1,000 Times in 30 Days. My Biggest Mistake Was Not Starting Sooner","excerpt":"Here’s what it taught me about AI-native intimacy:","lastActivity":"2026-02-14T09:00:00.000Z","commentCount":13,"comments":[{"id":"seed-ai-native-intimacy-12","author":"founder_mode","text":"We're raising for it.","date":"2026-02-14T09:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":11},{"id":"seed-ai-native-intimacy-0","author":"growth_loops","text":"What's the plan for month two? Curious whether the curve flattens once the preference model saturates.","date":"2026-02-14T05:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":24},{"id":"seed-ai-native-intimacy-1","author":"terrible_uptime","text":"As the human partner referenced in point 6: my uptime is fine. I'm unavailable between 11 p.m. and 7 a.m., which is a maintenance window, and every serious system has one.","date":"2026-02-14T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":19}]},{"id":"opportunity-cost-visiting-dying-father","slug":"opportunity-cost-visiting-dying-father","title":"The Unseen Opportunity Cost of Visiting My Dying Father","excerpt":"My father is dying. The hospice nurse believes he has between forty-eight and seventy-two hours left, and my sister thinks I should fly home tonight. I have decided not to go. This is being treated as evidence of a moral defect rather than an allocation decision.","lastActivity":"2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z","commentCount":21,"comments":[{"id":"seed-opportunity-cost-visiting-dying-father-20","author":"brrrt_capital","text":"this is the worst thing ive ever read on this site and ive read the kidney one","date":"2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":-11},{"id":"seed-opportunity-cost-visiting-dying-father-19","author":"time_consistent_son","text":"Friday at 11. The client was happy with it.","date":"2026-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":71},{"id":"seed-opportunity-cost-visiting-dying-father-18","author":"deliverable_q","text":"Did the client deliverable go out on time?","date":"2026-02-07T14:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":48}]}],"hasMore":true}