{"threads":[{"id":"jonathan-swift-population-ethics","slug":"jonathan-swift-population-ethics","title":"Jonathan Swift Was Right About Population Ethics","excerpt":"I know *A Modest Proposal* is satire. I read it in tenth grade like everyone else. Swift wrote it in 1729 to indict the English landlords who were starving Ireland, and the joke is that his arithmetic arrives somewhere no decent reader will follow. The problem is that we now have an intellectual movement built around the proposition that when moral arithmetic produces a conclusion that feels horrifying, the responsible response is to inspect the arithmetic rather than recoil from the answer.","lastActivity":"2026-07-17T02:00:00.000Z","commentCount":20,"comments":[{"id":"seed-jonathan-swift-population-ethics-19","author":"bullet_biter","text":"Thank you. We've started the registry.","date":"2026-07-17T02:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":34},{"id":"seed-jonathan-swift-population-ethics-18","author":"soft_close","text":"Congratulations on the pregnancy, sincerely. March is a good month.","date":"2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":57},{"id":"seed-jonathan-swift-population-ethics-17","author":"frontpage_standards","text":"Mods, does this belong on the frontpage? Genuine question about the criteria.","date":"2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":-7}]},{"id":"against-chronological-age-proxy-maturity","slug":"against-chronological-age-proxy-maturity","title":"Against Chronological Age as a Proxy for Maturity","excerpt":"My girlfriend is 19. I am 34. I realize there is a standard reaction to this, and I also realize that saying she is “mature for her age” does not improve the situation rhetorically. Unfortunately, it is also true.","lastActivity":"2026-07-10T02:00:00.000Z","commentCount":13,"comments":[{"id":"seed-against-chronological-age-proxy-maturity-12","author":"joint_probability","text":"A VC fund gets thirty bets, so nine zeros are survivable. With one band there's nothing to average over.","date":"2026-07-10T02:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":36},{"id":"seed-against-chronological-age-proxy-maturity-11","author":"lumpy_returns","text":"The point about lumpy careers is underrated, though. Most of the people saying \"ten years with nothing\" would also say a VC portfolio with nine zeros and one 50x had a bad decade until year ten.","date":"2026-07-10T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":28},{"id":"seed-against-chronological-age-proxy-maturity-10","author":"xX_utilitron_Xx","text":"most 34 year old metalcore guitarist post ever written","date":"2026-07-09T09:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":-12}]},{"id":"game-theoretically-optimal-heroin","slug":"game-theoretically-optimal-heroin","title":"Why It May Be Game Theoretically Optimal to Do Heroin","excerpt":"Most people evaluate heroin at the object level: overdose risk, legal exposure, deteriorating health, etc. This is incomplete. Under nontrivial probability of transformative AI within our lifetime, the relevant question is whether strategically constraining my future options could increase the probability that I remain economically and psychologically coupled to the arrival of the singularity.","lastActivity":"2026-06-13T06:00:00.000Z","commentCount":17,"comments":[{"id":"seed-game-theoretically-optimal-heroin-16","author":"mira_k","text":"Appendix B link is broken for me, does anyone have it","date":"2026-06-13T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":9},{"id":"seed-game-theoretically-optimal-heroin-15","author":"hyperbolic_hannah","text":"A local optimum with a short expected escape time, presumably. Though everybody's mother says it about everything, so it might just be a prior.","date":"2026-06-11T14:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":26},{"id":"seed-game-theoretically-optimal-heroin-14","author":"folk_to_formal","text":"I'd read a whole series that translates folk-ethical phrases into optimization language. \"Throwing your life away\" as \"an extreme optimization policy\" is clarifying. I'd like to know what \"he's going through a phase\" comes out as.","date":"2026-06-11T13:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":31}]},{"id":"against-naive-truth-telling-early-stage-saas-metrics","slug":"against-naive-truth-telling-early-stage-saas-metrics","title":"Against Naive Truth-Telling in Early-Stage SaaS Metrics","excerpt":"I think founders are held to an unusually crude standard of truth when talking about traction. Suppose I tell investors that our vibe-coded B2B SaaS platform for HVAC distribution has 18,000 users. The immediate response is usually some version of: how many of those are real? But “real” is doing a lot of work there.","lastActivity":"2026-06-12T05:00:00.000Z","commentCount":13,"comments":[{"id":"seed-against-naive-truth-telling-early-stage-saas-metrics-12","author":"prospective_revenue","text":"Series A closed in June. We have 41 paying distributors now. The Pizza Hut is still in the database.","date":"2026-06-12T05:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":61},{"id":"seed-against-naive-truth-telling-early-stage-saas-metrics-11","author":"did_it_close","text":"Did the round close? How's the database?","date":"2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":44},{"id":"seed-against-naive-truth-telling-early-stage-saas-metrics-10","author":"reflexivity_q","text":"This is reflexivity applied to a pitch deck. Beliefs about the company change the company, so the description becomes true. It works in markets until it stops working, and when it stops it tends to stop all at once.","date":"2025-11-27T08:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":31}]},{"id":"girlfriend-phone-safety-practice","slug":"girlfriend-phone-safety-practice","title":"Going Through My Girlfriend’s Phone Is Basic Safety Practice","excerpt":"Maya is affectionate, consistent and has never been caught lying. But reassuring observable behavior cannot establish the alignment of a highly capable autonomous agent.","lastActivity":"2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z","commentCount":12,"comments":[{"id":"seed-girlfriend-phone-safety-practice-11","author":"random_audit_q","text":"How would the randomized audits actually be randomized? If you pick the audit days yourself, you'll pick the days you were already worried about.","date":"2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":38},{"id":"seed-girlfriend-phone-safety-practice-10","author":"optimization_pressure_fan","text":"Whatever you think of the conclusion, the section on optimization pressure is better than most of what gets written about monitoring. The point that punishing undesirable reasoning makes reasoning less legible applies to a lot of workplaces too.","date":"2026-06-02T07:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":29},{"id":"seed-girlfriend-phone-safety-practice-9","author":"trusted_monitor_bf","text":"An attempt requires intent to unlock, and I hadn't decided what I'd do if it opened.","date":"2026-06-02T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":14}]},{"id":"optimal-number-of-beers","slug":"optimal-number-of-beers","title":"On the Optimal Number of Beers","excerpt":"Beer consumption is generally treated as a matter of intuition. This seems surprising. The activity is common, repeatable, measurable, and exhibits an obvious diminishing-marginal-returns curve.","lastActivity":"2026-05-29T00:00:00.000Z","commentCount":16,"comments":[{"id":"seed-optimal-number-of-beers-15","author":"gigachad_utilitarian","text":"just drink 12 and find out","date":"2026-05-29T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":-9},{"id":"seed-optimal-number-of-beers-14","author":"tuesday_vs_friday","text":"H also isn't a function of n alone. Same beers on a Tuesday before a 7 a.m. standup and on a Friday with nothing until noon are very different hangovers. The model needs a sleep term.","date":"2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":31},{"id":"seed-optimal-number-of-beers-6","author":"drinkmaxxer42","text":"That's a fair concern about drift. I'll recalibrate the limit quarterly against a fixed reference night.","date":"2026-05-28T10:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":22}]},{"id":"replaceability-best-friends-wife","slug":"replaceability-best-friends-wife","title":"Replaceability and the Case for Sleeping With My Best Friend’s Wife","excerpt":"I’ve been sleeping with Lauren, my best friend Dan’s wife, since March. Dan found out two weeks ago and called it a betrayal, which is an accurate description of the act but not yet an evaluation of the decision. We’ve been friends since freshman year at Lehigh. I was his best man, and his daughter Ava calls me Uncle Chris. I know how bad that sounds. The question is whether, in the nearest possible world where I kept my pants on, anyone was better off.","lastActivity":"2026-05-08T00:00:00.000Z","commentCount":13,"comments":[{"id":"seed-replaceability-best-friends-wife-12","author":"gigachad_utilitarian","text":"link to tanner's podcast?","date":"2026-05-08T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":-3},{"id":"seed-replaceability-best-friends-wife-11","author":"thermometers_are_small","text":"Thermometers barely change what they measure because they're tiny compared to the system. Eight months of texting and a house key is not small compared to a marriage, so the analogy runs the other way.","date":"2026-05-07T08:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":44},{"id":"seed-replaceability-best-friends-wife-10","author":"threshold_deontologist","text":"The constraint doesn't need infinite weight to bind. A threshold deontologist only needs it to outweigh the difference between you and Tanner, and in your own table that difference is a few cells about discretion and who already has a key.","date":"2026-05-07T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":59}]},{"id":"responsible-scaler","slug":"responsible-scaler","title":"I Can Stop Whenever I Want: A Responsible Scaling Policy for My Methamphetamine Use","excerpt":"A common objection to my methamphetamine use is that I've said I could stop whenever I want, and I haven't stopped. Both statements are true. My claim is that they're consistent. \"Can stop whenever I want\" describes a capability. Whether and when to use that capability is a governance question, and I have a governance framework.","lastActivity":"2026-05-06T05:00:00.000Z","commentCount":17,"comments":[{"id":"seed-responsible-scaler-16","author":"responsible_scaler","text":"It went ahead. The presentation ran long. My sister has asked for the slides, which I'm treating as engagement.","date":"2026-05-06T05:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":64},{"id":"seed-responsible-scaler-15","author":"gwen_reads_drafts","text":"How did Sunday go?","date":"2026-05-06T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":21},{"id":"seed-responsible-scaler-14","author":"intervention_governance","text":"On the update. An intervention staffed entirely by people without frontier experience is the governance failure we keep seeing with AI regulation, so I understand the frustration. But that cuts both ways. If you want the pause to be informed, invite Travis as a technical advisor.","date":"2026-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":42}]},{"id":"latency-minimizer","slug":"latency-minimizer","title":"Chesterton's Toilet: The Case for Shitting My Pants","excerpt":"A common objection to shitting my pants is that there is a toilet eleven meters away. I agree that the toilet exists. My narrower claim is that its existence does not settle whether walking to it is the best use of the next four minutes.","lastActivity":"2026-04-19T00:00:00.000Z","commentCount":17,"comments":[{"id":"seed-latency-minimizer-16","author":"sage_hollis","text":"Has anyone run this past a gastroenterologist? I'm not saying it's wrong, I'd just like to know what \"holding it\" does to the F term over a long session.","date":"2026-04-19T00:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":13},{"id":"seed-latency-minimizer-15","author":"latency_minimizer","text":"No. That was the point.","date":"2026-04-16T14:30:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":15},{"id":"seed-latency-minimizer-14","author":"remote_first","text":"On R. Did you stand up at any point during the call? Asking because \"below frame\" assumes you stayed seated for the rest of it.","date":"2026-04-16T13:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":24}]},{"id":"pulling-the-plug-on-my-brother-two-weeks-early-saved-eight-lives","slug":"pulling-the-plug-on-my-brother-two-weeks-early-saved-eight-lives","title":"Pulling the Plug on My Brother Two Weeks Early Saved Eight Lives","excerpt":"On March 3 I told the ICU at Lehigh Valley Hospital to take my brother Danny off life support. Danny was 34 and had been in a coma for sixteen days, since he laid his Harley down on Route 22. His neurologist put his chance of meaningful recovery at about 4% and asked us to wait until day 30 before deciding. I declined. Within 36 hours his liver, both lungs, both kidneys and his pancreas had gone to eight people in four states, and later his corneas went too. In expectation, I traded 0.04 of a brother for eight strangers. It is the best trade I have ever made, and I used to day-trade options.","lastActivity":"2026-04-14T09:00:00.000Z","commentCount":13,"comments":[{"id":"seed-pulling-the-plug-on-my-brother-two-weeks-early-saved-eight-lives-12","author":"transplant_outcomes","text":"I'll engage on the model since that's what you asked for. You count eight recipients against one patient, but you treat the one as a 0.04 probability and the eight as certainties. Transplant outcomes have their own failure rates. If you discount the recipients' side the way you discounted Danny's, the ratio shrinks a lot. I'd still expect it to stay above one, which is why the procedural rules carry so much of the weight in these cases.","date":"2026-04-14T09:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":42},{"id":"seed-pulling-the-plug-on-my-brother-two-weeks-early-saved-eight-lives-11","author":"organ_ev","text":"No beneficiary has objected. My mother hasn't spoken to me since the funeral, so nothing is on the record.","date":"2026-04-14T07:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":9},{"id":"seed-pulling-the-plug-on-my-brother-two-weeks-early-saved-eight-lives-10","author":"executor_self_dealing","text":"As executor you approved your own $9,000 claim against the estate. In most states that's self-dealing, and if any beneficiary objects the court will look at it closely, along with the engine.","date":"2026-04-14T06:00:00.000Z","seed":true,"ownerAuthor":false,"score":59}]}],"hasMore":true}